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Newsletter - July 2010

OI Partners

Where Are the Jobs? The Fastest Growing Occupations Projected by 2018

July 8, 2010 - Dennis Ghyst, Ph.D.

Which occupations are projected for the strongest growth? In the new edition of the Federal Government’s Occupational Outlook Handbook for 2010 – 2011 (available in print and free online at http://www.bls.gov/OCO/ ), a number of the pre-2008 crash projections still hold (see below).

A slow recovery is now underway, supported by recent news that U.S. jobs have been increasing at a much healthier pace, with unemployment projected to decline marginally throughout this year. By the spring of 2010, job gains had been reported in manufacturing, professional / business services, healthcare, and leisure and hospitality. In the months to come, Stimulus-related expenditures will kick in to expand job opportunities in the areas like health care delivery, financial oversight, education, and environmental protection. But the true ‘multiplier effect’ of the Federal Stimulus Bill can only be assessed next year, since so little of the $787 billion from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has yet been spent.

Among the most significant trends: a sharp increase in contract work as employers meet rising demand for goods and services with minimal investment (saving up to 30% on health insurance and unemployment costs). As the economic recovery solidifies, the old “temp jobs becoming permanent” pattern that has emerged during previous recoveries should begin to sink in. But, in the longer term, the trend toward contingent employment will accelerate as more of us move from one project or contract to another rather than follow a linear career progression within organizations. Case in point: in the mid-90s, most temporary positions were for administrative support, but more than half are now filled by professionals such as engineers and physicians.

Whether your next job will be full time with benefits or contingent, you still need to know which professions and industries have the best long-term opportunities. Demographic trends and the stable demand for certain goods and services, regardless of the stimulus, make it highly likely that jobs will continue to increase or begin to grow in the following areas:

  • healthcare delivery
  • the “knowledge industry” (leveraging analytical competencies that meet corporate challenges)
  • education (especially in math, science, language, and TESL)
  • energy
  • food processing and distribution
  • services for the elderly
  • management and technology-related consulting
  • security (from federal national security positions to corporate security)
  • entry level retail
  • waste treatment
  • interestingly, mid to higher-level IT (e.g., computer systems design, computer software engineering, database administration, and desktop publishing – as print media continue their precipitous decline). Clearly, reports that most all U.S. IT jobs would migrate offshore were, at best, premature.

Another interesting development: many Boomer generation federal employees are now retiring or approaching retirement age, promising an expansion of federal job openings and contract work in the near future (though growth in that sector is now flat except for temporary 2010 Census workers). State and local government employment is not expected to do as well.

Finally, here are some longer-term job growth projections (through 2018) for different educational levels. Many of these numbers are based on the assumption of a full economic recovery in the next few years, so be aware that as of 2010, a number of these professions have not yet experienced growth.

  • For those with an associate’s degree or postsecondary vocational award: registered nurses, over one million; nursing aides, orderlies and attendants, 422,000; licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses, 400,000; computer support specialists, 235,000; hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists, 125,000; automotive service technicians, 180,000; insurance sales agents, 150,000; heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration technicians, 135,000; real estate agents, 130,000 (of course, best to wait on a number of these options until the recovery is really solid.)
  • For those with a bachelor’s degree: elementary school teaching positions, 600,000; accountants and auditors, 500,000; secondary school teachers, 400,000; middle school teachers, 250,000; computer software engineers, 225,000; network systems and data communications analysts; 220,000; computer software engineers; 150,000, construction managers, 140,000; market research analysts, 140,000.
  • For those with graduate degrees: postsecondary teachers, 550,000; doctors and surgeons, 260,000; lawyers, 240,000; clergy, 220,000; pharmacists, 105,000; educational, vocational and school counselors, 95,000; physical therapists, 80,000; medical scientists, 65,000; mental health and substance abuse workers, 60,000; instructional coordinators, 60,000.

Please understand that such projections are always tentative and just because an occupation shows up on some ‘hot future jobs’ list, doesn’t mean it’s right for you. If you are considering a career change, take the time to do assessments, examine your interests, skills, and values, and meet with your career coach to discuss viable options. Do research on your target profession(s). Setting up informational interviews with people well established in a career path that interests you is an excellent way to begin that process.

Check http://careerplanning.about.com/od/exploring occupations/tp/hi_growth_bach.htm and other online sources for additional information.

Dr. Dennis Ghyst is a senior consultant at OI Partners – Career Management Resources (Atlanta). Dennis specializes in Outplacement & Career Planning and Leadership Development with a focus on publications and Social / Emotional Competence assessments and coaching. Dennis can be contacted at (770) 438-0022 or dghyst@oipartners.net.